Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.115103 1.176406 1.239909 1.310737 1.387687 1.468934 1.561433
2026-01-11 1.029757 1.117808 1.212975 1.324009 1.450682 1.591511 1.761068
2026-01-18 0.968653 1.071986 1.186965 1.325426 1.489047 1.678037 1.915512
2026-01-25 0.935310 1.051808 1.184630 1.348951 1.549170 1.788425 2.101007
2026-02-01 0.881969 1.003599 1.144799 1.323069 1.545434 1.818281 2.185989
2026-02-08 0.830788 0.954415 1.100054 1.287022 1.524829 1.823224 2.236238
2026-02-15 0.797698 0.924883 1.076864 1.275194 1.532384 1.862444 2.331928
2026-02-22 0.774201 0.905588 1.064756 1.275794 1.554717 1.920775 2.456054
2026-03-01 0.743965 0.876405 1.038631 1.256527 1.549051 1.940188 2.525656
2026-03-08 0.709734 0.840788 1.002735 1.222523 1.521340 1.927020 2.546100
2026-03-15 0.689759 0.822399 0.987971 1.215393 1.529184 1.962901 2.640206
2026-03-22 0.679564 0.815997 0.988216 1.227949 1.564250 2.038646 2.799431
2026-03-29 0.659924 0.797359 0.972559 1.219357 1.570750 2.075689 2.905535
2026-04-05 0.649385 0.790246 0.971863 1.231253 1.607066 2.159069 3.093448
2026-04-12 0.635618 0.778275 0.964022 1.232526 1.627563 2.219271 3.248058
2026-04-19 0.630019 0.776862 0.970226 1.253655 1.678183 2.328929 3.497374
2026-04-26 0.609118 0.754144 0.946364 1.230408 1.660359 2.328522 3.551758
2026-05-03 0.586188 0.728037 0.916998 1.197994 1.626849 2.300561 3.553180
2026-05-10 0.571857 0.713253 0.902902 1.187349 1.626382 2.326432 3.656327
2026-05-17 0.562005 0.704298 0.896623 1.187889 1.643238 2.381823 3.820507
2026-05-24 0.546848 0.687598 0.878870 1.170537 1.630700 2.386337 3.885362
2026-05-31 0.528123 0.665509 0.852875 1.139884 1.595441 2.349671 3.864369
2026-06-07 0.517835 0.654952 0.843073 1.133451 1.599112 2.380939 3.984644